Themba Gorimbo (-122) vs. Takashi Sato (+100)
Welterweight (170 pounds)| Fighter | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Themba Gorimbo | $16 | 6' 1" | 77" | -0.15 | 2.36 |
| Takashi Sato | $15 | 5' 10" | 73" | -1.97 | 1.50 |
Unless expecting a knockout, I don't like Takashi Sato's chances this weekend.
Sato's two UFC wins were of that variety with a come-from-behind win over Ben Saunders in his debut, and he got the fragile Jason Witt with one in 2020. Surrounding those finishes are four losses, and it's from dreadful striking (-1.97 SSR) and an inability to defend grappling (three submission attempts ceded).
He'd be a tough sell against most opponents, but Themba Gorimbo was actually quite impressive in a short-notice debut against A.J. Fletcher earlier this year. Gorimbo landed 60% of his significant strikes and defended 58% of Fletcher's. He was taken down and ultimately submitted, but the South African is a competent grappler with 6 of his 10 pro wins by submission himself.
Fletcher is a top prospect, but Sato has shown weaknesses there in UFC. Gorimbo's four-inch reach edge should also help him when he's already shown a history of striking efficiency. In a pick 'em, I'd prefer to back the modest small sample over Sato's underwhelming one.
Betting Verdict: We don't know enough to see value in leaping toward Gorimbo here, but I wouldn't oppose a bet when I expect him to win the fight north of 55% of the time.
DFS Verdict: At $15-16 salaries, pick your favorite in smaller tournaments. Gorimbo is my choice of the two. Neither of these fighters' profiles is a safe or necessary pick in cash games.
Natalia Silva (-1200) vs. Victoria Leonardo (+680)
Women's Flyweight (125 pounds)| Fighter | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natalia Silva | $23 | 5' 4" | 65" | 3.48 | 3.65 |
| Victoria Leonardo | $8 | 5' 5" | 64" | -1.23 | 2.68 |
This type of matchmaking is how stars are born.
Natalia Silva is the largest favorite on the card for a reason. As one of the very best prospects at women's 125, she's arguably stepping back in competition after dispatching fellow prospect Tereza Bleda. Silva has answered every question on the feet (+3.48 SSR), and her 92% takedown defense has kept her there.
Of course, Victoria Leonardo's SSR tells the story, but for full context, she's landing just 39% of her significant strikes and defending a poor 44%, as well. She's got very little hope there, and she'll need far better than a 29% takedown accuracy when Bleda, a larger foe, secured just one of seven attempts.
Leonardo's contract ends here, but she's not really in consideration to get resigned. Generating no quality offense against Mandy Böhm will do that to you. UFC appears to be using her contract finale to prop up one of its brightest young stars.
Betting Verdict: In a division ripe for upsets, it helps that this fight is -142 to see fewer than 2.5 rounds. That's a dominant win for Silva, not Leonardo's 56% career finishing rate. I do see a bit of value with Silva by KO/TKO/Submission (-175), too.
DFS Verdict: Silva is one of the best MVP candidates on the board. She finished a better prospect last fight, and Leonardo has been finished in all four pro losses.
Nick Fiore (-134) vs. Chase Hooper (+110)
Lightweight (155 pounds)| Fighter | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Fiore | $17 | 5' 10" | 72" | -3.66 | 1.76 |
| Chase Hooper | $14 | 6' 1" | 74" | 0.32 | 3.81 |
Chase Hooper was dropped on 3 of Steve Garcia's 29 punches in his last fight at featherweight, and now he's moving to a more powerful weight class?
The 23-year-old is 6'1", so a heavier weight class was in his future, but this soon seems like a stretch. Hooper has bullied two former bantamweights for a pair of wins, adding a third against featherweight cast-off Daniel Teymur. He's an excellent grappler (2.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes), but his issues have come striking.
Hooper has a wretched 34% striking defense that was always met with the caveat of "never been knocked out." Garcia changed that, opening the door for New England's Nick Fiore for another.
Fiore trains with UFC fighters of this size like Calvin Kattar and Rob Font, and going the distance on a week's notice with Mateusz Rebecki appears to be a great accomplishment. Rebecki's 14-fight winning streak has moved him up the ranks quickly at lightweight.
Interestingly, four of Fiore's six pro wins have come via submission, and no one -- including Rebecki and his 35% submission rate -- has finished him. Sure, I understand concerns about Fiore's level of competition, but if Hooper doesn't have a submission opening, this looks like a whooping from the largest guy he'll have fought in UFC yet.
Betting Verdict: Fiore's resumé isn't one I'd actively look to target, but Fiore by KO/TKO (+340) could be worth a dart given the obvious downside of Hooper at this heavier weight class.
DFS Verdict: Over 1.5 Rounds here is -172, so this is a volatile fight environment, but eliminating a Hooper submission (which could still happen) would squarely place the upside on Fiore at $17. It's all about evaluating that possibility.
Rodrigo Nascimento (-192) vs. Ilir Latifi (+154)
Heavyweight (265 pounds)| Fighter | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Nascimento | $19 | 6' 2" | 80" | -1.17 | 3.82 |
| Ilir Latifi | $10 | 5' 10" | 73" | -0.83 | 2.10 |
Some of light heavyweight's best knockout artists have put Ilir Latifi out, but the UFC veteran should be a tough puzzle for Rodrigo Nascimento.
Like last week's main event winner, Jailton Almeida, Nascimento is the rare jiu-jitsu technician at heavyweight. He averages 2.30 takedowns and 1.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes with all three UFC wins via an early finish. However, across 24 pro fights, Latifi has never been submitted.
In fact, in 15 UFC fights, Latifi has never been taken down. That's where this fight -- oddly -- becomes a striking match that neither wants.
Though Nascimento's seven-inch reach edge should help, he's absolutely unproven at this level. His four wins have come over foes a combined 8-14 in UFC-affiliated appearances, and he's held a combined -40 striking differential in his last two wins.
Latifi is 40 years old and uninspiring offensively himself, but the line is what creates value in this fight. If he's his usual defensive stalwart (56% striking defense) in both domains, he could grind the inexperienced Nascimento to a split decision -- and possibly win it.
Betting Verdict: Five of Latifi's last seven fights have gone the distance, and Nascimento's one UFC knockout came against Alan Baudot (0-4 UFC). I'm seeing quite a bit of value in over 2.5 rounds at -102.
DFS Verdict: Unless you're expecting a Nascimento finish in some manner, there isn't a ton of upside in this fight for DFS. You could turn to Latifi for salary savings at $10 -- or fade it entirely.
Orion Cosce (-110) vs. Gilbert Urbina (-110)
Welterweight (170 pounds)| Fighter | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orion Cosce | $16 | 5' 11" | 71" | -0.61 | 2.67 |
| Gilbert Urbina | $15 | 6' 3" | 75" | -0.13 | 5.38 |
If you'd asked me the night of The Ultimate Fighter 29 finale, I'd have given Gilbert Urbina a minimal shot at a successful UFC career.
In that fight, Urbina -- on short notice -- wore down in a competitive fight with Bryan Battle, but Battle's 4-1 start in UFC provides some hope after another knockout last weekend. He took advantage of Battle's known weakness, landing an excellent 6.21 significant strikes per minute with 59% accuracy.
The issues came defensively as he fatigued. He had a 47% striking defense, didn't defend Battle's takedown, and was submitted. At the very least for him, Orion Cosce has badly struggled to strike in UFC.
Cosce can wrestle (2.30 takedowns per 15), but he's held a -62 striking differential in two appearances with a 46% defense. That's a nightmare facing what Urbina showed to be decent striking.
This one should exclusively come down to Urbina's takedown defense, but don't discount Urbina's grappling. Urbina has won two of his last five bouts by submission, and Cosce hasn't authored an attempt in UFC. This fight is a disaster of prospects trending in the wrong direction, so I might as well take the 'dog.
Betting Verdict: My model, based on offensive efficiency, loved Urbina's debut against a multi-time UFC winner. It's positioning him as a favorite, but I don't see this as a bet-worthy fight.
DFS Verdict: Daily fantasy is a different story. With the need for quality value on the slate, Urbina is a high-upside dart at a $15 salary. Cosce's lack of scoring upside in more favorable matchups almost turns us to him by default.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-118) vs. Vanessa Demopoulos (-104)
Women's Strawweight (115 pounds)| Fighter | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | $17 | 5' 3" | 64" | -0.21 | 3.41 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | $14 | 5' 2" | 59" | -1.22 | 2.73 |
Has Karolina Kowalkiewicz rebounded, or has she just faced easier competition? That's the question that'll decide this fight.
Kowalkiewicz's five-fight losing streak ended in 2022 with a pair of wins, but those two fighters she beat are just 1-3 in UFC since the start of 2020 against all others. Vanessa Demopolous is the most credentialed fighter she'll face since the skid. Her lone UFC loss (against three wins) came on short notice at flyweight (125 pounds).
There isn't a fighter on UFC's roster less equipped to move up in weight. Demopolous' 59" reach is the shortest on the roster, and her 5'2" frame is tiny here. As a result, you see her non-existent efficiency in a -1.22 SSR.
Here's where this fight gets interesting -- Demopolous averages 1.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes. During her skid, Kowalkiewicz ceded three submission attempts and was embarrassingly submitted by Jessica Penne as a huge favorite. If Kowalkiewicz is still gunshy there, "Lil' Monster" could even secure her first UFC finish.
It's unlikely, though. With over 2.5 rounds sitting at -290 here, oddsmakers are expecting a tight fight that Kowalkiewicz escapes. I am in that same neighborhood with a lean toward the younger Demopolous.
Betting Verdict: I don't see value with the round total or moneyline. As mentioned, upsets happen constantly in women's divisions, so it's intriguing that Demopolous -- as the less-credential name than the former title challenger -- is such a small 'dog.
DFS Verdict: If this fight were to find an early finish, it's not likely the 37-year-old striker, Kowalkiewicz. This fight is as 'dog-or-pass as it gets in DFS -- especially when Demopolous ($14) is the more comfortable grappler.
Viacheslav Borschev (-170) vs. Maheshate (+138)
Lightweight (155 pounds)| Fighter | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viacheslav Borshchev | $19 | 5' 11" | 69" | 0.07 | 2.02 |
| Maheshate | $11 | 6' 0" | 71" | -0.74 | 1.55 |
We should finally get to see "Slava Claus" fight in this one.
Viacheslav Borschev's 45% takedown defense rendered him useless in recent bouts against Marc Diakiese and Mike Davis, but his opponent this week, Maheshate, is a Chinese striker who's never attempted a takedown. Jackpot.
Borschev knocked out UFC winners Chris Duncan and Dakota Bush in his first two UFC-affiliated appearances, which is why he still holds a positive SSR despite spending 20:27 of the last 30 octagon minutes within the grasp of his opponent. Though his per-minute rates declined underneath the aforementioned wrestlers, his excellent striking accuracy (58%) never has.
Maheshate is massive for this division, but he's relied on nothing but size and toughness thus far. He's landed just 2.59 significant strikes per minute on 25% accuracy, so he hasn't put forth high-level offense despite one connecting for a knockout of Steve Garcia (who now fights at 145 pounds).
Borschev's never been professionally knocked out. If that holds, and Maheshate hasn't become a wrestling wizard overnight, he appears to be in a position to tattoo the underdog. He's faced tougher competition to this point, too.
Betting Verdict: I see value in Borschev up to -225 with minimal expected wrestling. Even at this elevated moneyline, he makes a ton of sense. For an odds discount, Borschev has scored a knockout in five of his six wins if Borschev by KO/TKO (+125) is more in your price range.
DFS Verdict: As a striker, Borschev has the right style for an MVP candidate if you believe in his win equity. I could see many turning to the underdog, so he could fly totally under the radar, as well.
Diego Ferreira (-162) vs. Michael Johnson (+132)
Lightweight (155 pounds)| Fighter | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Ferreira | $18 | 5' 9" | 74" | 1.32 | 3.37 |
| Michael Johnson | $13 | 5' 10" | 73" | 0.37 | 2.78 |
There appears to just be a different tier of ability between these two fighters.
Admittedly, Michael Johnson pulled a stunning upset of Marc Diakese last December, but it wasn't so stunning when you consider what he does well. Johnson's 80% takedown defense is excellent, and he was able to lay it on the English wrestler after defending his advances.
Diego Ferreira should be a whole different challenge. Ferreira's five UFC losses have come to four fighters who are either currently ranked at lightweight or left to an inactive status that way. He went to a split decision with Beneil Dariush, and he outstruck Mateusz Gamrot (+11 differential) before "Gamer" landed a clutch, come-from-behind knee.
Behind a one-inch reach edge, Ferreira has landed more often and defended better against more difficult competition. Michael Johnson just posted a -30 striking differential last year to the unranked Jamie Mullarkey.
Plus, if there's any wrestling or grappling at all, we know it would be from Ferreira. Johnson has landed one takedown since the start of 2019. Diego's skid should end here.
Betting Verdict: I've got Ferreira pegged at nearly -300 with these two long, well-tested samples. He's one of my favorite win bets of the weekend.
DFS Verdict: I was surprised to see this fight at +128 to go over 2.5 rounds. Oddsmakers are expecting an early finish, so I'll naturally flock to Diego ($18) in droves. Johnson has just one win by a finish since the start of 2017, so the upside likely isn't his.
Joaquin Buckley (-220) vs. Andre Fialho (+176)
Welterweight (170 pounds)| Fighter | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | $20 | 5' 10" | 76" | 0.34 | 2.81 |
| Andre Fialho | $9 | 6' 0" | 74" | -3.05 | 1.90 |
Welcome to welterweight, "New Mansa."
It's an interesting time for Joaquin Buckley to make the shift in weight. He just fell on the wrong side of tough-luck results to ranked middleweights Nassourdine Imavov and Chris Curtis but held a +9 striking differential between those two bouts.
My knock on Buckley has always been a poor 32% striking accuracy and, as a result, wasting plenty of energy. However, when Andre Fiahlo's is just 38%, that's less of a concern than normal. Buckley's massive 1.81% knockdown rate should only get larger in this lighter weight class.
Fialho is a one-dimensional boxer from Portugal, and he just hasn't succeeded overall in UFC. His -3.05 SSR is abysmal, and the results are getting worse and worse with recent lopsided defeats at the hands of Muslim Salikhov and Jake Matthews.
Though the weight change adds some ambiguity, Buckley was fighting and competing with ranked guys at middleweight. Fiahlo has been getting lit up by unranked guys at 170. This appears to be as soft of a possible landing spot for Buckley, a star and author of one of UFC's best knockouts ever, at his new home.
Betting Verdict: Buckley by KO/TKO (+115) is short for a reason. He's the best striker Fialho has faced in three fights, and the previous two also put his lights out.
DFS Verdict: A 1.81% knockdown rate contains the multiple-knockdown, first-round finish upside that's undeniable at MVP. Personally, with some minor scoring concerns for Natalia Silva, Buckley is the best DFS play on the card at $20.
Loopy Godinez (-158) vs. Emily Ducote (+128)
Catchweight (120 pounds)| Fighter | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loopy Godinez | $19 | 5' 2" | 61" | 0.24 | 3.78 |
| Emily Ducote | $12 | 5' 2" | 63" | -1.94 | 3.74 |
I expected a much larger betting number on Emily Ducote, but it shouldn't surprise anyone if she finds a way to turn back Loopy Godinez despite being down on experience and star power here.
Ducote has two big advantages working in her direction. Her frame is physically larger, capped by a two-inch edge in reach. Godinez bullies many strawweights on size alone, but she'll at least pass that prerequisite. Plus, Ducote has defended all eight takedowns she's faced in UFC.
There's an obvious problem, though. Even if this is a striking match, Ducote and Godinez both fought Angela Hill in striking matches, and the results were starkly different. Godinez had a +9 striking differential against Hill, and Ducote's was -111. Godinez also has higher striking accuracy (48%) and defense (63%) than Ducote to this point.
While Ducote could withstand Godinez's wrestling, she'd have a tough time defeating a Godinez that was 100%. However, Loopy took this fight not even two weeks ago, and while she's the author of the quickest turnaround in UFC history (seven days), it hasn't gone well for her on short notice. She's 0-2 in UFC fighting above 115 pounds, and this will be a 120-pound catchweight on short notice again.
Betting Verdict: Perhaps due to Godinez's short notice, this number is significantly below where I'd have expected (-250), and the fight is -330 to go over 2.5 rounds. I see no value in betting what should be a tight fight with minimal scoring moments.
DFS Verdict: With this fight so likely to head to a decision, Ducote ($12) is the only fighter under $15 with a FanDuel-point-per-minute average above 3.50. It's possible she's an optimal underdog just hanging around in a loss.
Anthony Hernandez (-215) vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (+172)
Middleweight (185 pounds)| Fighter | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Hernandez | $21 | 6' 0" | 75" | 0.53 | 5.81 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | $9 | 6' 2" | 74" | -0.28 | 3.24 |
Training with Ronda Rousey, Edmen Shahbazyan's hype train was doomed to crash.
To this day, the five UFC opponents that "The Golden Boy" has beaten are 4-11 overall since the start of 2020. He burst onto the scene as a knockout artist, but his 46% striking defense has proven to melt against superior competition. His 65% takedown defense is fine, but he's also been taken down -- and kept down -- seven times in his last four fights.
Anthony Hernandez appears to be a threat to exploit both of those issues. Hernandez averages 6.49 takedowns per 15 minutes with excellent 64% accuracy. He's won four of his last five fights with it; the only exception was a quick knockout to Kevin Holland (12-6 UFC). He's beaten three multi-time winners in this stretch to Shahbazyan's one.
However, Hernandez might also be more comfortable at distance. His slightly better striking defense (47%) is also shown by the gap in SSR above.
"Fluffy" Hernandez's last win over Marc-Andre Barriault would be Shahbazyan's best in UFC, and he's also topped Rodolfo Vieira (4-2 UFC) and Junyong Park (6-2 UFC). He seems destined for the rankings at this stage, which was a status Shahbazyan couldn't keep.
Betting Verdict: Hernandez's analytical profile is slightly better everywhere. I'm right in line with the -235 moneyline, but Shahbazyan has never been professionally submitted. That, and Edmen's poor striking defense, makes Hernandez by KO/TKO (+550) a super interesting dart.
DFS Verdict: Fluffy should get plenty of love on FanDuel thanks to his moneyline, but he'll likely pay off if he's having his way. He leads the card in FanDuel points per minute (excluding bonuses) at 5.81. He's an MVP candidate with the others.
Mackenzie Dern (-176) vs. Angela Hill (+142)
Women's Strawweight (115 pounds; Five-Round Main Event)| Fighter | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Dern | $22 | 5' 4" | 63" | -1.37 | 2.66 |
| Angela Hill | $15 | 5' 3" | 64" | 0.71 | 3.67 |
I am so far off from the market here that it's scary, but it's that way just about every time Mackenzie Dern fights as a heavy favorite. She's a bad one that consistently fails in this spot.
Dern does one thing well, and I'll admit it; her grappling is probably in the 99th percentile of all UFC fighters. She averages 1.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes with four wins via sub when everyone knows it's coming. She's just really poor at everything else.
Her largest issue is an 11% takedown accuracy, which routinely prevents her from getting the fight where she can win it. Many grapplers can succeed with a -1.37 SSR, but Dern is stuck striking from the opening bell because she can't wrestle.
It won't help that Angela Hill's 77% takedown defense has been exceptional. Hill has also been finished just twice in 27 pro fights, and the last instance was in 2019. She's never been knocked out.
As mentioned earlier, Hill is coming off her most dominant win in UFC yet over a capable striking prospect, Emily Ducote. Ducote's SSR is within earshot of Dern's in a much smaller sample.
Realistically, over 4.5 rounds in this fight sitting at -164 tells me all I need to know. Hill should dominate every second of this fight at distance. Dern's projected takedown efficiency into her strong D is awful, so she might be able to steal moments or rounds by pulling guard, but as we saw against Yan Xiaonan, that wasn't enough to score points with judges over the course of 25 minutes.
The pace Hill put on Ducote (12.13 significant strikes per minute) would finish Dern before the 25-minute bell if it held. Even if it doesn't, I still believe "Overkill" Angie Hill wins this one.
Betting Verdict: Projecting Dern for less than half a takedown, I've got Hill at a laughable -225 to win this fight as the 'dog. Those odds underrate Mackenzie's grappling, but we're not exactly working with a small margin for error. Hill by KO/TKO (+850) is curiously shorter than you might think, too.
DFS Verdict: Without an early submission, Dern has no path to points. She's never topped 70 FanDuel points without one. In that event, the fast-paced Hill ($15) carries plenty of value as a 'dog that I believe should lead a good bit of this dance.
